Trudeau decided to go ahead with retaliatory tariffs even though Trump’s order includes a mechanism to escalate the rates if Canada retaliates against the U.S.
If it were an actual shooting war, Canada would have to surrender within days. Virtually the entire population lives within a two hour drive of the border, and the US military is orders of magnitude bigger than the Canadian military.
But, while the US could easily conquer Canada militarily, the guerilla war would be another matter.
The US/Canadian border is the longest land border in the world. The US could do nothing to stop Canadians from entering the US. And, once Canadians were inside the US, there’s no way to tell a Canadian from an American. South Park lied, not all Canadians have floppy heads. Once inside the US, guns are freely available to everybody. Plus, the market is so open, it’s easy to get what you need to make bombs.
So, imagine the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland, but spread out throughout the entire US. The American psyche is not prepared for that. Americans have been in all kinds of wars, but the last time Americans had a war on home soil was the US Civil War. Just look at the overreaction to a mere 3000 people dying on September 11th. Decades later and the ripples are still being felt.
And, that’s not even considering that probably more than half the US wouldn’t support an attack on Canada, and a significant fraction would help Canadians with sabotage and other guerilla activities.
As chaotic and norms-breaking as Trump is, I have to think someone would stop him before he actually went into a shooting war with Canada.
Yeah. And it’s one thing when you have a highly motivated army fighting for a cause they believe in, supported by a civilian population that’s 100% behind the war. In that case your army will put up with hardships to get the job done. It’s very different when the military doesn’t believe in the mission and the people at home are against the war. The US learned that lesson in Vietnam.
And then there’s how the attacked country responds. If you live in a war-torn region, or under the thumb of a dictator, maybe you welcome, or at least grudgingly accept the army coming in. But, it’s very different when it’s a stable, prosperous country with a good government. Just look at Ukraine. It had its issues before Russia attacked, but it was relatively stable, becoming more prosperous, and democracy seemed to more or less be working. As a result, they’re highly motivated to make huge sacrifices to fight off the Russians. My guess is that more than 90% of Canadians would not welcome Americans. Even die-hard anti-Trudeau conservatives who were previously MAGA types would switch sides if the US invaded.
It would be absurd for the US to attack militarily. But, these last 2 weeks have been full of absurd things, so who knows.
If it were an actual shooting war, Canada would have to surrender within days. Virtually the entire population lives within a two hour drive of the border, and the US military is orders of magnitude bigger than the Canadian military.
But, while the US could easily conquer Canada militarily, the guerilla war would be another matter.
The US/Canadian border is the longest land border in the world. The US could do nothing to stop Canadians from entering the US. And, once Canadians were inside the US, there’s no way to tell a Canadian from an American. South Park lied, not all Canadians have floppy heads. Once inside the US, guns are freely available to everybody. Plus, the market is so open, it’s easy to get what you need to make bombs.
So, imagine the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland, but spread out throughout the entire US. The American psyche is not prepared for that. Americans have been in all kinds of wars, but the last time Americans had a war on home soil was the US Civil War. Just look at the overreaction to a mere 3000 people dying on September 11th. Decades later and the ripples are still being felt.
And, that’s not even considering that probably more than half the US wouldn’t support an attack on Canada, and a significant fraction would help Canadians with sabotage and other guerilla activities.
As chaotic and norms-breaking as Trump is, I have to think someone would stop him before he actually went into a shooting war with Canada.
Yup. Taking territory is one thing. Holding it is another.
Yeah. And it’s one thing when you have a highly motivated army fighting for a cause they believe in, supported by a civilian population that’s 100% behind the war. In that case your army will put up with hardships to get the job done. It’s very different when the military doesn’t believe in the mission and the people at home are against the war. The US learned that lesson in Vietnam.
And then there’s how the attacked country responds. If you live in a war-torn region, or under the thumb of a dictator, maybe you welcome, or at least grudgingly accept the army coming in. But, it’s very different when it’s a stable, prosperous country with a good government. Just look at Ukraine. It had its issues before Russia attacked, but it was relatively stable, becoming more prosperous, and democracy seemed to more or less be working. As a result, they’re highly motivated to make huge sacrifices to fight off the Russians. My guess is that more than 90% of Canadians would not welcome Americans. Even die-hard anti-Trudeau conservatives who were previously MAGA types would switch sides if the US invaded.
It would be absurd for the US to attack militarily. But, these last 2 weeks have been full of absurd things, so who knows.